Leaked letter predicts crime rise
Home Office minister says letter is statement of the "blindingly obvious"
Crime levels are set to rise because of the economic downturn, according to a leaked Home Office letter.
The draft letter to Downing Street said rising property crime and violent crime, and increased hostility to migrants, were likely.
It also forecast more smuggling of fuel, alcohol and tobacco.
Home Office minister Tony McNulty said the letter was a "statement of the blindingly obvious", as it was clear crime may go up in the slowdown.
The letter was draft advice which had not been cleared by home secretary Jacqui Smith and had not been sent to Number 10, the Home Office said.
Migrant workers
The letter based its suggestions about property crime, such as burglary, and violent crime on the experience of the recession in the early 1990s.
It said if the economic slowdown was on a similar scale over the next couple of years, property crime would be likely to rise by 7% in 2008 and a further 2% in 2009.
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The letter added that a downturn would affect the need for migrant workers, particularly in jobs such as construction where they make up a large proportion of the workforce.
"Increased public hostility to migrants" was predicted to result from heightened competition for employment.
The leaked letter stated: "There is a risk of a downturn increasing the appeal of far-right extremism and racism, which presents a threat as there is evidence that grievances based on experiencing racism are one of the factors that can lead to people becoming terrorists."
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